Actually Saints would be a better analogy. Took over a crappy team, got a great QB, took 4 years to get to the SB. One key difference is that Brees was a veteran.

Niners are struggling and Alex Smith has fallen to earth. Just look at how the staff has lost confidence in Smith: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... =nfl_t2_a5

So it's no sure thing that the Niners will make it to the SB this year, although they were looking unbeatable in the first few weeks.

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As for the Phins, I'm like JMP: it's all about Tannehill. If he becomes the franchise QB we're dreaming of, the wins and playoffs will happen.

Next year could still be a big step backwards as Miami could have huge turnover with all the free agents leaving and more draft picks joining the team. While that will hopefully translate into more talent, it will also equal inexperience and costly mistakes. BUT it's better for the long haul - and I'm all for that.

My hopes are fully pinned on years 3 and 4 provided Tannehill progresses.

But, in the meantime it is still extra fun to think we might be in the playoff chase when NO ONE would have considered it a possibility at the end of preseason.

You are correct. I mistakenly put the superbowl.

Who was picking the 49ers as a great defense prior to that year? Or even was saying they would make the playoffs? As I recall they came together during the season and had a pretty damn good run against a weak division.

The Dolphins are 4th against the run and that includes the 2 top teams having played 1 less game. And the Jets, and Bills are not top rated in my opinion and both may finish with double digit loses. More similar then not.

New head coach. Check.
New staff. Check
Weak division. Check
QB playing above what everyone thought. Check

I've been reading posts here and I'm not sure if it was you but I think it was, saying that it was all about the QB. That is the defining position. The 49ers didn't have a good QB unless you think Smith is. Again correct me if I'm wrong but how is it now that Defense won it for the 49ers and not the QB? It would seem that would go against your premise that it's the QB that makes the difference. Sorry if it wasn't you.

The Fins are last comment is extremely telling on where you're at with regards to the Dolphins chances and outlook about them. I guess if one goes by tie breakers that are meaningless right now they are last. Everyone in the division has the same record and the Dolphins haven't even played the Bills and Patriots. It's been a sad state of affairs for how this team has performed over the last 20 years but I see them as tied for 1st because last year doesn't matter. Because really, that's where they are in the Wins and Loss column and not the meaningless tie breakers 6 games in. I do live in reality and don't have rose colored glasses but on the flip side I don't have black colored glasses either.



That is better put then my rambling post. Well said.

Thanks.

To add to it: I won't be the least disappointed if Miami fails to make the playoffs - whether narrowly or by a wide margin - provided Tannehill continues to get better and we still see improvement in other areas.

I think at this point Miami is far exceeding expectations. (YAY!) Maybe it's too optimistic that they exceed them even further and make the playoffs. But I think it's ok to dream provided we're realistic and don't jump off the ledge should their record ultimately be under .500.

I would argue that the Patriots arrow is pointing down. The only decent team they have beaten is the Broncos. And I'm looking at the big picture when I say arrows. For their future. Brady is or will be declining. The Bills and and Jets are a mess and we are finally coming into our own. It looks promising to me.

Tom Brady is still one of the best in the game. But this isn't 2010 where he WAS the best in the game. Your Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have come into prominence. While Brady's QBR seems to be around where it was the year he came back from injury. Still very good. But, not what we are accustomed to from him. I'd argue he looks on the decline. Even if only subtly. WHEN we play the Patriots. We MUST rattle them. MUST rattle Brady. EVERY single time (WildCat excluded) we've beaten the Pats since Brady has been around.. It's because we've gotten to him.. Ask the Giants. They know a little something about beating Tom Brady.

I wouldn't say pointing down, as the Pats are a dangerous team and should still win the division. But I would not say the arrow is up either because I think this team has reached their ceiling, and has nowhere to go but down. I tend to think the arrow is pointing sideways. Get another solid year or two outta Brady before he begins his decent.

I'm interested in winning Super Bowls - not just making the playoffs. Having a questionable passing game will not lead to a Super Bowl in today's NFL. Sure, last season the 49ers had a great D and they won 13 games...but they didn't get a ring, and they won't as long as they have a mediocre QB. Conversely, the Giants and Pats both had great QBs and questionable (or awful, in the Pats' case) defenses - and they played in the Super Bowl.

IMO the formula for being a great team these days is: great QB and passing game on offense, and great pass rush and forcing a lot of turnovers on defense. You can be weak in all other areas, but if you are strong in those 4 you can win. Right now the Phins are 0 for 4 in those categories. At least we can feel confident in the QB moving forward...

I tend to agree with JMP here.

I agree they will probably win the division. I'm thinking long term. Over the next few years. Our arrow is up.. and I think theirs is down.

Our arrow is definitely up moving forward. Amazing what a QB can do!

Unfortunately I'd say the Patriots are still riding high. Brady is still playing at an insanely high level, and they have key young players on offense and defense. They have a few more years. The wildcard, of course, is Ryan Mallett. If he turns into the QB I think he can, then we can probably forget about a Patriot decline. Time will tell.

I do believe we dodged a bullet with respect to the Patriots. Think about all the draft picks they have had in the last three years. Of all those picks how many IMPACT players did New England get? I don't think Ireland would get the benefit of a doubt that Belichick has gotten in New England.