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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:35 pm 
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I think that Hartline's contract shouldnt be addressed until we address the wide reciever position. I agree with JMP, he has talent but not enough to pay him that much. It is no secret that Miami is looking for an alpha reciever and quite possibly two by draft or FA. Whatever the case maybe, Hartlines production will reduced significantly IMHO. Bess is suited for the slot and i would rather hace bess in the slot then Hartline.


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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:46 pm 
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Whatever the case maybe, Hartlines production will reduced significantly IMHO.


Excellent point, umix. Assuming that we really do upgrade the WR position, Hartline is no longer going to be the top receiver on the team. His production will, by definition, decrease if he's # 2 or 3 instead of the # 1. So why pay him that much if his role will be reduced?

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I think that Hartline's contract shouldnt be addressed until we address the wide reciever position.


I think that's the way to do it - let free agency play out for both Hartline and the Dolphins, and see what happens. If Hartline gets a big contract to play somewhere else, so be it. And if he doesn't find what he's looking for and crawls back to the Phins at a reasonable salary - great.


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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 8:10 pm 
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FinFanatic wrote:
Hartline is the BEST WR on e phins now, and I am a strong proponent of keeping what you got until you can afford to let him go, meaning you already have his replacement.


Really? I hadn't noticed :poke:

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As always, dont make me bring back my essays on the Todd Wade fiasco!!!! You have been warned!!!! :whip:


I'd actually love to read your essays again :D I miss those days (sighs).

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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 10:29 pm 
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Great thread, great debates.

I’ll insert 3 more bulletpoints into this debate:

1) The WR’s listed below received a contract of $6-mil+ last season despite NEVER having a 1,000 yard season. If the Dolphins don’t offer Hartline a contract of $6-$8-mil per year, someone else will.
Robert Meachem, Chargers – 4-years, $25-million ($7.5-mil guaranteed)
Pierre Garcon, Redskins – 5-years, $42-million ($20.5-mil guaranteed)
Josh Morgan, Redskins – 2-years, $12-million ($7.5-mil guaranteed)
Laurent Robinson, Jaguars – 5-years, $32-million (14-mil guaranteed)

2) The following argument is invalid: Brian Hartline’s 2012 season was a fluke because he was targeted so many times.
Hartline ranked 16th in the NFL in receiving yards with 1083, while only being targeted 128 times. Of the top 16 WR’s, only Michael Crabtree was targeted more times (127). If Hartline were targeted 150-170 times instead of 128? It’d be a different story. Lets not forget that Hartline was missed on at least 3 easy TD’s of 40+ yards, too.

3) Don’t pinch pennies with Hartline.

If Ireland’s opening offer to Hartline was $5-mil/year, he should be willing to go up to the $6-$8 mil mark. He’s 26 and coming off a near 1100-yard season with a raw rookie QB. Quite simply... losing Hartline requires replacing Hartline. And if we’re going to do it with Jennings or Bowe? It’ll be very pricy, while still needing to add a #2 WR to play opposite of Jennings/Bowe while STILL needing a long-term #1 WR because Jennings and Bowe will be 29 and 30 next season. The Dolphins success over the next 5 years will be determined by their ability to put Tannehill in every position to succeed – Hartline is a big part of that puzzle.


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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:08 am 
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Quote:
1) The WR’s listed below received a contract of $6-mil+ last season despite NEVER having a 1,000 yard season. If the Dolphins don’t offer Hartline a contract of $6-$8-mil per year, someone else will.
Robert Meachem, Chargers – 4-years, $25-million ($7.5-mil guaranteed)
Pierre Garcon, Redskins – 5-years, $42-million ($20.5-mil guaranteed)
Josh Morgan, Redskins – 2-years, $12-million ($7.5-mil guaranteed)
Laurent Robinson, Jaguars – 5-years, $32-million (14-mil guaranteed)


First, the Meachem and Morgan contracts really don't figure into this discussion, because the guaranteed money is low enough that they can easily be cut any time after their first season.

Second, the assumption I get from your post is that those players are all overpaid. If you acknowledge that, than why would you try to justify the exact same thing by wanting the Phins to overpay Hartline?

Third, forget Morgan, because he sucks. But the other three receivers each had a lot of TDs in the season before getting their money: Meachem and Garcon each had 6, and Robinson had 11. In contrast, Hartline has 6 TDs in his entire career. Playmakers get paid - non-playmakers don't.

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2) The following argument is invalid: Brian Hartline’s 2012 season was a fluke because he was targeted so many times.
Hartline ranked 16th in the NFL in receiving yards with 1083, while only being targeted 128 times. Of the top 16 WR’s, only Michael Crabtree was targeted more times (127). If Hartline were targeted 150-170 times instead of 128? It’d be a different story. Lets not forget that Hartline was missed on at least 3 easy TD’s of 40+ yards, too.


Hartline's season wasn't a fluke...1000 yards is the bare minimum I'd expect from a team's #1 receiver.

But...while Hartline was the #16 receiver in yards, the 15 receivers in front of him ALL scored at least 4 TDs...and 7 of the 15 each reached double-digit TDs. Hartline had 1. TDs aren't the be all end all of receivers (see Megatron's nearly-impossible-to-believe 5 this season), but if you're looking to get the big bucks you need to score more than 1 a year.

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losing Hartline requires replacing Hartline. And if we’re going to do it with Jennings or Bowe? It’ll be very pricy, while still needing to add a #2 WR to play opposite of Jennings/Bowe while STILL needing a long-term #1 WR because Jennings and Bowe will be 29 and 30 next season.


The goal is to get better, not continue to tread water. My plan is to sign one of the big 3, and use one of the first 3 picks on the position, and use another pick later in the draft as well. Then, we have a true #1 and we add a rookie with the skills to be a legit #2. We increase the talent level at the position and make it a position of strength. Replacing Hartline is easy...any number of receivers off the street can gain 1000 yards and score 1 TD if they are the go-to guy, at a fraction of the cost of Hartline's demands. But again, signing one of the big 3 makes it a moot point...because by acquiring one of those guys, we have upgraded the #1 spot.

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The Dolphins success over the next 5 years will be determined by their ability to put Tannehill in every position to succeed – Hartline is a big part of that puzzle.


How is Hartline a big part of the puzzle if everyone in the world agrees that the receiving corps sucked last season, and we struggled to get first downs and TDs with Hartline as the top dog? The missing puzzle pieces are playmakers at WR and TE, not mediocre receivers.


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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 1:53 am 
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JMP wrote:
The assumption I get from your post is that those players are all overpaid. If you acknowledge that, than why would you try to justify the exact same thing by wanting the Phins to overpay Hartline?


Because I don’t set the market, JMP. 32 NFL teams do. WR’s and CB’s have progressively been paid more, more, and more over the last 5 years. It’s a simple matter of examining data.

JMP wrote:
But...while Hartline was the #16 receiver in yards, the 15 receivers in front of him ALL scored at least 4 TDs...and 7 of the 15 each reached double-digit TDs. Hartline had 1. TDs aren't the be all end all of receivers (see Megatron's nearly-impossible-to-believe 5 this season), but if you're looking to get the big bucks you need to score more than 1 a year.


Hartline was missed on 3-4 TD’s of 40+ yards and NEVER targeted in the redzone. 74 catches, 1083 yards, and only 1 TD looks out of place for a reason. Hartline will never be a 10+ TD guy, but 1 TD on the season isn’t his fault either.


JMP wrote:
But again, signing one of the big 3 makes it a moot point...because by acquiring one of those guys, we have upgraded the #1 spot.


I don’t care about the #1 WR spot. I care about surrounding Tannehill with a deep, talented supporting cast in his crucuial years between 2013-2015. Your first step? Would be to refuse to pay Brian Hartline more than $4mil/season because any WR could put up 1100 yards? That’s nonsense. It’s even more ridiculous to head into FA and the NFL Draft with Bess, Moore, and Clay as Tannehill’s first 3 options while just praying thing will fall perfectly into our lap.

JMP wrote:
How is Hartline a big part of the puzzle if everyone in the world agrees that the receiving corps sucked last season .


Simple. Hartline had nothing to with this. The inability to surround Hartline (and Bess) with better talent was the reason.

But really.. the Dolphins have positioned themselves to stockpile the skill positions around Tannehill over the nex 3 years, years that will determine his NFL success. QB Tannehill, RB Miller, LT Martin, and C Pouncey will make a combined $6.5mil/season this year. RB Bush, LT Long, and DT Starks will likely walk. It frees up the $$$$ for the Dolphins to re-sign Hartline, add Wallace/Jennings/Bowe, and likely more in the draft.

JMP wrote:
The missing puzzle pieces are playmakers at WR and TE, not mediocre receivers.


That’s fine if you feel that way. Just understand that you’re dreaming about a 1200 yard street free agent that doesn’t exist.


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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 2:13 am 
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Gotta agree with NYF on this one, if I didn't make it clear before.

The whole point (at least if I were GM) is to ADD to Hartline and Bess. Nobody's saying Hartline will be--or even should be--the #1 WR next season. The argument is to get a #1 WR and a future #1 and some more depth in the offseason to create the kind of deep WR corps teams need to win these days. The age of the single, top guy, Diva Recievah and a bunch of dross is over. And Philbin is one of the people responsible for this paradigm shift actually. Which is why I expect him to be banging the table for this to happen.

Overpaying WRs in today's league is much more preferable to overpaying O-linemen. Wouldn't you agree?

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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 2:38 am 
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JLFINFAN wrote:
I'd offer $4 to $4.5 million with plenty of incentives. If he wants more than 4 to 4.5, let him earn it.


I'd offer Hartline the same, JL, but I'm confident his camp will reject it immediately. He'll earn $6-mil+/season next year whether it's with the Dolphins or another team. If Hartline asks for ridiculous $$$ in the 5-year, $40-50 mil range? That's a different story. These are very crucial years in Tannehill's development, and retaining Hartline is key.


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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:57 am 
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NYF wrote:
I'd offer Hartline the same, JL, but I'm confident his camp will reject it immediately. He'll earn $6-mil+/season next year whether it's with the Dolphins or another team. If Hartline asks for ridiculous $$$ in the 5-year, $40-50 mil range? That's a different story. These are very crucial years in Tannehill's development, and retaining Hartline is key.


I don't mean a bunch of incentives "not likely to be earned". I mean incentives on things that if he has another strong season, he'll make. 70 plus catches? $300,000 bonus. Another 1000 plus yards? $500,000 bonus. Plays in all 16 games? $100,000 bonus. Off season work outs and training? $50,000. Things like that could quickly add another million or so to his payroll. And if he does add that amount, then he deserved it.


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 Post subject: Re: now we can really debate Hartline's worth
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 12:39 pm 
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JL has the right idea.

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